Sometime on August 28th, one of the hundreds of people checking-in for the Eurostar service from London to Paris will become the 100 millionth passenger on the high speed cross channel train service

This is quite a milestone, reached in just under 15 years - the first Eurostar service ran on November 14, 1994. (These figures do not include the further millions who have crossed in their cars and lorries using the Eurotunnel shuttle service.)

But more significantly, those 15 years have brought in a new way for millions of people in the UK, France and Belgium to cross the channel. Pre-1994, boats for a few and planes for the majority were the standard ways to cross the Straits of Dover.

Few then would have predicted or even expected that rail would now account for 75% of the market and planes just 15%. Certainly not the Brits as not only was there no high speed track back in 1994 (besides the Eurostar route, there still isn't) but the lacklustre UK rail services did not exactly encourage people to use them.

But this success is likely to have come as far less of a surprise to the French. They have for years enjoyed a superb and constantly growing national network of a high speed trains, now expanded into Belgium and Germany and, soon, into the Netherlands and Spain.

More than this, the success of Eurostar in snatching travellers from the airlines persuaded at least one, Air France to cut the number of its daily services between London and Paris. But if the Eurostar service has reduced the number of flights between London and Brussels and Paris, the Thalys high speed trains have ended the air service between the Belgian and French capitals. The British were still debating the train versus plane scenario for years after the French and Belgians had voted for the train.

It has all led Richard Brown, ceo of the train operator, to speak of a "Eurostar generation who have changed their lives because of our service." This is not fanciful. There are now hundreds of thousands of French people living in London - the UK capital is actually France's sixth largest city - and probably as many British living in Brussels and Paris who do so partly because Eurostar can speed them home in about two hours.   

How Eurostar helped change the way we travel

Many of these who enjoy Eurostar's comfortable, relaxed and above all punctual service would never dream of fighting their way to and in Heathrow or CDG.

But if the battle against the plane has been won, Mr Brown, who moves upstairs to become non-executive chairman of Eurostar in the New Year with Nicolas Petrovic taking over his role as ceo, knows another is about to start.

From January 2010 all rail passenger services in the EU will be liberalised. This means that any train operator can, in theory, run services on any route in the EU which almost certainly spells competition for Eurostar.

There have been plenty of rumours as to who might be in the frame. A constant name is Air France which has never denied it. Certainly the carrier has been in talks with Veolia, a French transport conglomerate, and with rail industry experts. But it has never been clear whether it plans to rival Eurostar or run feeder service for its long haul network out of CDG.

Deutsche Bahn, the German national rail operator, is another name that has been mentioned and although it has denied it has plans to take on Eurostar, the rumours persist.

But what is clear is that Eurostar is likely to face another fight. It will be a different type of battle to the one against the plane. But it is likely to be just as tough.

Eurostar.com

25 August 2009